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Systematic Risk Changes, Negative Realized Excess Returns and Time-Varying CAPM Beta

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  • Jiri Novak

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague)

Abstract

We make two methodological modifications to the method of testing CAPM beta and we show that these significantly affect inferences about the association between CAPM beta and stock returns. While the conventional beta proxy is indeed largely unrelated to realized stock returns (in fact the relationship is slightly negative), using forward-looking beta and eliminating unrealistic assumptions about expected market returns makes it (highly) significant. In addition, we show that complementary empirical factors—size and ratio of the book-to-market value of equity—that are sometimes presented as potential remedies to beta’s deficiencies do not seem to outperform beta. This suggests that weak empirical support for CAPM beta is likely caused by complications with implementing CAPM rather than by the weakness of the underlying concept.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiri Novak, 2015. "Systematic Risk Changes, Negative Realized Excess Returns and Time-Varying CAPM Beta," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(2), pages 167-190, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:65:y:2015:i:2:p:167-190
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pritpal Singh Bhullar & Pradeep K. Gupta, 2016. "Expected and realized stock returns: Evidence from India," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(11), pages 270-278, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset pricing; CAPM; beta; factor pricing models; three-factor model; market efficiency; Sweden; Scandinavia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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